Is This a Credible Threat?

From the AP: "If the (South Korean) enemies try to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us .... we will answer to this with all-out war," Col. Pak In Ho of North Korea's navy told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.

Cheonan Incident Update

1.  What will China do?  What else can the international community agree to do to North Korea?  Stephan Haggard of UC-San Diego doesn't think there is much they can/will do: "South Korea may want to take this issue to the U.N. Security Council, but I don't see anything that the five Security Council members can sign on …

More Cheonan Stories

Update: This (see below left) is something the South Korean government does not want to disrupt with a war: The LA Times has an article in yesterday's paper discussing the possibility North Korea used a submersible suicide bomber.  Five day mourning period begins for South Korean sailors. China says it was an "unfortunate incident."  But …

What happens to a ship when it is hit by a torpedo? The Cheonan.

Interesting post on this - plus pictures of the raised Cheonan.  HT: Information Dissemination. What is interesting is that the ship was split in half!  South Korea has now publicly announced that the Cheonan was likely hit by a torpedo: see this NY Times article. As Rob has noted, "War is simply not in South Korea’s interests."  …

More on the Cheonan Incident

In case you miss it in the comments, Rob Farley at LGM responds to my post and adds more thoughts on North Korea and the Cheonan Incident. In case you are wondering, Rob is not one of my senior colleagues on my P and T committee.  He's just an interesting guy, hence all the links!

Is North Korea angling for a diversionary war?

The UK Times suggests that the apparent North Korean attack on the South Korean naval ship on March 26 may have been an attempt to provoke war with South Korea.  Specifically: In some ways, a limited war might be exactly what the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, is hoping for. After decades of economic decline …

Cheonan Incident

I'm with Rob at LGM on this issue: if the North Koreans torpedoed South Korea's Cheonan, doing nothing is not an ideal response.  As Rob notes:  "indicating that North Korea is allowed to sink South Korean ships in internationally recognized South Korean waters seems problematic."  However, if I'm remembering my Robert Jervis correctly, we should be …