Understanding the NH House Elections of 2012

This piece was originally intended as an op-ed for the Union-Leader. However, they did not pick it up. Therefore, I'm running it here. Why did Republicans do poorly in the last state elections in New Hampshire? There is no shortage of theories, but what has been lacking is any attempt to test those theories on …

The Second Term Begins

Today is the inauguration and the beginning of President Obama’s second term in office. Ralph Nader, for one, isn’t impressed with inaugurations. As he noted Sunday: “Tomorrow I’ll watch another rendition of political bulls—- by the newly reelected president, full of promises that he intends to break just like he did in 2009.” Nader might …

Should State Parties Change Their Names?

In Canada, provincial parties are totally organizationally independent of federal parties and may not even have the same names. Thus, the British Columbia Liberal Party has generally been right-of-center, and British Columbia Liberals tend to vote Conservative at the federal level. Quebec Liberals have generally been more Quebec-nationalist/decentralist than the federal Liberals. Most provinces have …

Puerto Rico Status Referendum

Media are reporting the results of the Puerto Rico status referendum as if the statehood option had won. Now, it may indeed be the case that the resident commissioner will present legislation of accession to the Union in the House of Representatives, but only an oddly structured ballot devised by the pro-statehood party allowed the …

Election Silver Linings

While a lot of folks are disappointed in last night's most prominent election results, there are some silver linings: Colorado and Washington passed ballot initiatives legalizing possession and sale of small quantities of marijuana. This could be the thin end of the wedge that ultimately dooms the drug war, as the DEA won't be able …

My Vote and My Pairwise Preference

Following Grover's urging, I'm revealing my vote and my pairwise preference in the presidential contest. My vote in safely Democratic New York is for Libertarian Gary Johnson, but I do have a slight pairwise preference for Romney-Ryan over Obama-Biden. The reason is that while both sets of candidates are equally bad on all sorts of …

My Election Forecasts — And I’ve Made It Interesting

Here are my prognostications for Tuesday. I agree with Alex Tabarrok that a prognostication isn't worth much if the issuer isn't willing to put something behind it. Therefore, I'm willing to take bets on any of these. Probability of Obama victory: 4 to 1. Somewhere between Intrade and Nate Silver. In fact I tried to …

Somin on Romney vs. Obama

Ilya Somin has a detailed and thoughtful post contrasting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama from a libertarian perspective. He comes down tentatively on the side of Romney overall, but acknowledges that more pacifistic libertarians might reasonably support Obama as the lesser evil. The most informative section for me was that on judicial nominations. In particular, …

Further Unpacking Ron Paul’s State-by-State Performance

Per commenter FreeDem's request, here are some other ways to interpret Ron Paul's primary performances in each state, building on the statistical models estimated here. The first exercise is to simulate what Paul's percentage of the vote would have been in each state had they all voted at the same time with the same "institutions" …

Understanding Ron Paul’s 2012 Presidential Primary Performance

After the 2008 primary season, I analyzed Ron Paul's performance in each state to see how institutional factors such as caucus and primary form affected his electoral success. This exercise turned out to be useful for estimating the size of the pro-liberty electorate in each state. In this post, I do the same with the …

An Effective Anti-Romney Ad?

A colleague of mine pointed me to this anti-Romney ad, adding that he thought it was "effective" because of its focus on one compelling story. Have a watch: I did not find it effective. It does focus on one story, and it does make it sound like this person was made worse off by Romney. …

Nuts Ron Paul Fans Dis Rand for Mitt Plug

I've been seeing all kinds of abuse being hurled at Rand Paul for his endorsement of Mitt Romney in this year's presidential election. He doesn't deserve any of it. Let's recapitulate some facts for the benefit of blinkered Ron Paul devotees abusing Rand: Ron Paul can't win the GOP nomination. I don't care what Alex …

Eurozone Crisis & Obama Reelection/Cross-National Economic Voting Bleg

One keeps hearing that the euro crisis could doom Obama's chances for reelection. (Because, after all, that's the reason we should be concerned about the economy: its effects on politics.) I'm not so sure. Voters are hardly well informed, but if the Eurozone goes into deep recession and the U.S. into a mild one, won't …

Economic Muddle

Each week when I get the Economist, I usually go straight to the Lexington column. This week it addresses the “war over class war.” The final paragraph is a keeper: Mr Romney is fond of saying that Mr Obama has no idea how the economy works and how jobs are created. The way the Obama …

Regulations

I don't often share memes, but when I do, it's this one. HT: The Whited Sepulchre

Public Opinion and the Economy: What are the Lessons?

A new Washington Post-ABC poll focuses on voter perceptions of whether Obama or Romney would do more to improve the economy (poll results here, discussion here). When asked “Who would do more to advance the economic interests of middle-class Americans,” Obama wins over Romney, 50% to 44%.  When asked who would do more to advance …

Private Equity, the Government, and Jobs

The last week has brought a fair amount of attention to the Obama campaign attacks on Romney and Bain Capital, most of which might have been lifted straight out of the “vulture capital” meme started by the Rick Perry campaign. It all started with Corey Booker’s rejection of the Obama strategy on Meet the Press …

You Say You Want Some Evolution…

Now that the press has ratcheted up the pressure on the President to clarify his ever evolving position on gay marriage, President Obama has agreed to “a hastily scheduled interview just a day after voters in North Carolina approved a state constitutional amendment defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman.” See …

The Bucket of Warm Spit

FDR’s first Vice President, John Nance “Cactus Jack” Garner, once noted that the office was "not worth a bucket of warm spit” (note: the contents of the bucket vary based on the source). Given his opposition to the court-packing scheme, I will accept his judgment as sound. The question of who will be selected to …

Why “Vote GOP for the Court” Cuts No Ice with Me

I've never voted for a Democrat or Republican for president at a general election. I've always voted for a Libertarian (in 2008 I voted for George Phillies, who was on the ballot as a Libertarian in New Hampshire in addition to the official candidate, Bob Barr), and I've never had reason to regret my vote. …

An Advantage of Incumbency…

...Making taxpayers foot the bill for your campaign events. Obligatory disclaimer: Republican presidents did this too, I'm sure.

A Political Scientist’s Wish List

Political scientists are an odd bunch. They get excited by the establishment of political authority and by its dissolution, by good governance and bad. Every political scientist undoubtedly has a list of things that he or she would find fascinating.  It looks like this year I may be able to check off another item. Collapse …

Obama: Chess Master or Pawn?

James Fallows has an interesting piece entitled “Obama, Explained” in the new Atlantic. I strongly recommend the article. It is insightful, relatively evenhanded, and illustrated with some excerpts from interviews with a broad array of sources. An important question frames his analysis: This is the central mystery of his performance as a candidate and a …

A Touch of Pragmatism?

George Will (today’s Washington Post) has apparently concluded that a Romney or Santorum presidency is unlikely. Fear not: the field of candidates for 2016 is deep and impressive. In the interim, he makes an argument for pragmatism: conservatives this year should have as their primary goal making sure Republicans wield all the gavels in Congress …

Romney, Santorum and the Future of the GOP

John Heilemann has an interesting essay on the 2012 GOP primaries (“The Lost Party,” in New York Magazine) Core argument: Regardless of who the GOP nominee is (and here the choice is Romney and Santorum), a loss to Obama will and important implications for the future of the GOP.  If Romney wins—and then loses—the lesson …

Revisiting My Primary Forecasts

My original forecasts for Ron Paul's primary performances are here. Those forecasts were based simply on the Iowa result, so it was quite possible that there would substantial error, and indeed there has been. Paul significantly overperformed his forecast in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the forecast was dead on in Florida, and then Paul …

The Consistency of Ron Paul

There is an interesting portrait of Paul by David Halbfinger in the NYT. The piece focuses on his consistency overtime and the formative events that shaped his political and economic commitments.

President Moonbeam (with apologies to Jerry Brown)

While most of the GOP presidential aspirants are content talking about the mundane and rarely (with the exception of Ron Paul) the most serious problems facing the nation, Newt once again elevates the debate—and this time literally. Enjoy the quotes of Gingrich from a recent campaign stop in Florida: “By the end of my second term, …

Some Initial Thoughts on the SOTU

My first impression of Obama’s SOTU: it was an interesting combination of contradictory materials (transcript here).  Obama appealed to Lincoln: “I'm a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.” If he truly believes this, then he …

Hope, Change, and Constraints

Ryan Lizza presents an interesting portrayal of President Obama in the New Yorker (“The Obama Memos”) that is well worth a read. Some samples: The premise of the Obama campaign was unusual. “Change We Can Believe In” wasn’t just about a set of policies; it was more grandiose. Obama promised to transcend forty years of …

The GOP and Self-Inflicted Wounds

There is little excitement about the current field of GOP presidential aspirants (with the possible exception of the always entertaining and quickly marginalized Ron Paul). What is somewhat striking is the extent to which Perry and Gingrich have framed the core debate, playing right into the hands of Obama’s 2012 campaign. I think Charles Krauthammer …

Ron Paul Takes Second in Both New Hampshire Primaries

That's right; in addition to the 23% of the Republican vote he took, Paul took 4% of the Democratic vote as a write-in candidate, good for second place, according to the NH Secretary of State. (Note: the NH SOS website is down right now, so I'm relying on descriptions of what it says given to …

Ron Paul: Follow the Money

I love to spend time with opensecrets.org, a website sponsored by the Center for Responsive Politics. It delivers data on contributions and lobbying in a user friendly and searchable format.  After reading a blog posting by Vox Day decrying Romney’s financial ties with Wall Street, I did a quick comparison of the top contenders. As …

Ron Paul Soundly Beating Expectations (updated)

Results are still coming in, and Ron Paul is at 24% with 58% reporting, but it's not too early to say that my forecast was wrong. When you examine the town-by-town results, the towns that have reported are exactly average for Ron Paul, according to their 2008 results. So I predict Paul will finish with …

What to Look for in Tonight’s Primary Results

Jon Huntsman is having a mini-surge in New Hampshire, at the expense of Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. While a week ago Paul was routinely breaking the 20% barrier in the polls, he is now down to about 17-18%, a small decline, but when replicated across a number of different polls likely to reflect a …

The Polls and Ron Paul’s “Thousand Points of Darkness”

A piece by Steven Shepard (National Journal) reports the surprising findings of  a new CBS News poll. Romney posts a two-point lead over Obama, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. He leads Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, among independent voters. Obama's lead …

More Disappointment from Huntsman

Hit & Run is reporting that Jon Huntsman (audio link) is saying that he would have signed the NDAA, the recent bill authorizing indefinite detention. Couple that with his comments on Iran, and he's looking more and more like just another Bush Republican.

ACLU’s Civil Liberties Candidate Report Card

The ACLU has just released a candidate report card on certain civil liberties issues. It includes all Republican candidates, Barack Obama, and Gary Johnson. It doesn't provide an aggregate score, but it scores all candidates on the issue areas of "humane immigration policy," "closing Guantanamo Bay and indefinite detention," "gays and lesbians serving openly in …

Forecasting Ron Paul’s Remaining Primary Performances

Last night, Ron Paul increased his percentage of the Iowa caucus vote from 10.0% in 2008 to 21.4%. If we can expect this same kind of increase from Paul in the remaining states, what would we expect his performance to be? I have found that Ron Paul's primary vote shares are best modeled logarithmically, due …

Additional Thoughts on Iowa

The results from the Iowa caucus reflect how well established the divisions are on the right. As the NYT described the outcome: Republicans entered the campaign divided into three strains that are now personified by the three men who led in the last polls before the caucuses: Mr. Romney representing the moneyed, establishment chamber of …