This piece was originally intended as an op-ed for the Union-Leader. However, they did not pick it up. Therefore, I'm running it here. Why did Republicans do poorly in the last state elections in New Hampshire? There is no shortage of theories, but what has been lacking is any attempt to test those theories on … Continue reading Understanding the NH House Elections of 2012
Today is the inauguration and the beginning of President Obama’s second term in office. Ralph Nader, for one, isn’t impressed with inaugurations. As he noted Sunday: “Tomorrow I’ll watch another rendition of political bulls—- by the newly reelected president, full of promises that he intends to break just like he did in 2009.” Nader might … Continue reading The Second Term Begins
In Canada, provincial parties are totally organizationally independent of federal parties and may not even have the same names. Thus, the British Columbia Liberal Party has generally been right-of-center, and British Columbia Liberals tend to vote Conservative at the federal level. Quebec Liberals have generally been more Quebec-nationalist/decentralist than the federal Liberals. Most provinces have … Continue reading Should State Parties Change Their Names?
Media are reporting the results of the Puerto Rico status referendum as if the statehood option had won. Now, it may indeed be the case that the resident commissioner will present legislation of accession to the Union in the House of Representatives, but only an oddly structured ballot devised by the pro-statehood party allowed the … Continue reading Puerto Rico Status Referendum
While a lot of folks are disappointed in last night's most prominent election results, there are some silver linings: Colorado and Washington passed ballot initiatives legalizing possession and sale of small quantities of marijuana. This could be the thin end of the wedge that ultimately dooms the drug war, as the DEA won't be able … Continue reading Election Silver Linings
Following Grover's urging, I'm revealing my vote and my pairwise preference in the presidential contest. My vote in safely Democratic New York is for Libertarian Gary Johnson, but I do have a slight pairwise preference for Romney-Ryan over Obama-Biden. The reason is that while both sets of candidates are equally bad on all sorts of … Continue reading My Vote and My Pairwise Preference
Here are my prognostications for Tuesday. I agree with Alex Tabarrok that a prognostication isn't worth much if the issuer isn't willing to put something behind it. Therefore, I'm willing to take bets on any of these. Probability of Obama victory: 4 to 1. Somewhere between Intrade and Nate Silver. In fact I tried to … Continue reading My Election Forecasts — And I’ve Made It Interesting