My Election Forecasts — And I’ve Made It Interesting

Here are my prognostications for Tuesday. I agree with Alex Tabarrok that a prognostication isn’t worth much if the issuer isn’t willing to put something behind it. Therefore, I’m willing to take bets on any of these.

Probability of Obama victory: 4 to 1. Somewhere between Intrade and Nate Silver. In fact I tried to make a bet on Intrade in favor of Obama several days ago, but they wanted all sorts of private information on my identity that I wasn’t willing to give them. I will take either side of this bet at those odds.

Popular vote share: Obama 50.0, Romney 48.3, Johnson 0.7. I’m willing to take either side of these at even odds.

Electoral vote: Obama 294, Romney 244. Again, I will take either side of this bet at even odds.

Senate: 53 D (incl 2 I), 47 R. Same deal – either side, even odds.

House: Republican majority. I’ll give 13 to 1 odds against a Dem takeover.

New Hampshire Predictions

Governor: Hassan (D). I’ll take even odds against.

Executive Council majority: R. Same.

Senate majority: R. Same.

House majority: R. Same.

If you’d like to make a bet, please post in the comments and then e-mail me your contact information. My e-mail address is (replace the “AT” with the “at” symbol). Please limit my total exposure on any one bet to $100 maximum (I’m not wealthy).

7 thoughts on “My Election Forecasts — And I’ve Made It Interesting

  1. I’m in Jason. I’ll take the other side of the Electoral College prediction. Romney a winner with about 301 votes, +/- 5. I think we will see more of a 2004 turnout than an 06, 08, or 10 turnout, which I think bodes poorly for the president. The Romney forces seem more energized and to have regained momentum they lost with the Sandy interlude of a few days. My wager: a beer the next time we are together.

      1. I don’t think Gary Jonson is going to reach .7% 😦

        Can I wager a lunch? (Regardless of the outcome, you could choose the restaurant.)

        I know I don’t actually know you, but I’m a fan and I’m interested in constitutional design/constitutional political economy and positive political theory and I’d love the chance to pick your brain.

        (My background is in normative theory and history of thought.)

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