In yesterday's German federal election, the Christian Democrats dramatically increased their seat share and moderately increased their vote share, while their coalition partners, the classical liberal Free Democrats, lost all their seats for the first time in party history. Since the Christian Democrats came five seats short of a majority, it looks as if they … Continue reading The German Election (update)
I am a policy guy, so my expertise in electoral politics (i.e., “the talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity," to quote Publius) is quite limited. But I will put my Sharon Angle "man pants on” and challenge my fellow Pilieus bloggers to do the same. Here are my predictions: The Senate: the … Continue reading Placing bets on the “Little Arts of Popularity”: the Midterm Projections
The new Gallup generic ballot for Congress shows that things are tightening as the midterm elections approach. In August, Republicans enjoyed an unprecedented 49% to 43% lead. As of today, the lead has dwindled to 46% to 45%. Assuming that the change in the polls is accurate, what explains the tightening numbers? Certainly, the Democrats … Continue reading This Time Will Be Different?
The new jobless figures are out. The US lost another 54,000 jobs, pushing unemployment from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent. There should be no real surprises here. (See the WSJ coverage). Following the release of the job numbers, the President remarked the economy is moving in “the right direction; we just have to speed it up” … Continue reading The Dog Days of Recovery Summer
There has been more than enough bad news for Democrats lately. The other day, a new Gallup poll gave Republicans a historical 10 point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot for Congress. Today Gallup released more dire news. “Americans saying the Republicans in Congress would do a better job than the Democrats in Congress … Continue reading Hope and (Party) Change?
The media is seeking to draw lessons from the primaries that were held yesterday in a number of states, including Connecticut. As a resident of the Nutmeg State, the victory of Linda McMahon of World Wide Wrestling fame was entertaining. But the most interesting and potentially revealing event was the Democratic primary for governor where … Continue reading Primary Diagnosis: Connecticut
In politics, it's rare that one gets to say "I told you so" quite this quickly. So forgive my being a little smug after yesterday's post about how the left is underestimating Rand Paul, when a Rasmussen poll has come out today showing Paul up 25 points over his general election opponent.