The German Election (update)

In yesterday's German federal election, the Christian Democrats dramatically increased their seat share and moderately increased their vote share, while their coalition partners, the classical liberal Free Democrats, lost all their seats for the first time in party history. Since the Christian Democrats came five seats short of a majority, it looks as if they …

Placing bets on the “Little Arts of Popularity”: the Midterm Projections

I am a policy guy, so my expertise in electoral politics (i.e., “the talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity,"  to quote Publius) is quite limited. But I will put my Sharon Angle "man pants on” and challenge my fellow Pilieus bloggers to do the same. Here are my predictions: The Senate: the …

This Time Will Be Different?

The new Gallup generic ballot for Congress shows that things are tightening as the midterm elections approach. In August, Republicans enjoyed an unprecedented 49% to 43% lead. As of today, the lead has dwindled to 46% to 45%. Assuming that the change in the polls is accurate, what explains the tightening numbers? Certainly, the Democrats …

The Dog Days of Recovery Summer

The new jobless figures are out. The US lost another 54,000 jobs, pushing unemployment from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent. There should be no real surprises here. (See the WSJ coverage). Following the release of the job numbers, the President remarked the economy is moving in “the right direction; we just have to speed it up” …

Hope and (Party) Change?

There has been more than enough bad news for Democrats lately. The other day, a new Gallup poll gave Republicans a historical 10 point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot for Congress. Today Gallup released more dire news. “Americans saying the Republicans in Congress would do a better job than the Democrats in Congress …

Primary Diagnosis: Connecticut

The media is seeking to draw lessons from the primaries that were held yesterday in a number of states, including Connecticut. As a resident of the Nutmeg State, the victory of Linda McMahon of World Wide Wrestling fame was entertaining.  But the most interesting and potentially revealing event was the Democratic primary for governor where …

Paul Up 25

In politics, it's rare that one gets to say "I told you so" quite this quickly. So forgive my being a little smug after yesterday's post about how the left is underestimating Rand Paul, when a Rasmussen poll has come out today showing Paul up 25 points over his general election opponent.

Democrats, Lefty Blogosphere Unite Against Paul

Rand Paul's victory in the Kentucky Senate primary has befuddled and deranged much of the left. Matt Yglesias calls Paul a "lunatic," while the Daily Caller reports on Democratic attempts to portray him as "out-of-touch, elitist, and selfish." Ed Kilgore says Paul's "radicalism," identified by his association with the Tea Party and calls for "massive …

Rand Paul’s Insurgent Campaign

Over at fivethirtyeight, Ed Kilgore pooh-poohs the notion that Rand Paul's expected victory in today's Republican U.S. Senate primary in Kentucky represents an anti-incumbent, insurgent mood among voters: Kentucky has a closed primary system with a very early cutoff date for registration changes, so independents are quite literally not going to be a factor in …

Is Utah as weird as you think?

Well, it might be.  And maybe even weirder.   But the recent weirdness--the ousting of long-serving Senator Bob Bennett in the state convention--is quite remarkable, but for different reasons than most people are led to believe by the national media. There has been a lot of national reporting on this important story.  As is usual, the …