I don’t blog much here anymore, in part because I’ve been too busy with Ethics & Economics Education, and in part because I find it easier to share quick thoughts on Twitter. Here’s a little tweetstorm I had recently on Catalonia’s independence vote next month:
We might get crossover between Podemos & Ciudadanos soon. https://t.co/uiRhOp02gL
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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I've been trying to figure out why support for Catalan independence started declining in December 2014 (https://t.co/fw1yqnM4gi)… 1/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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English-language news articles suggest it's Spain's economic recovery, but that doesn't make sense. 2/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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Majority of Catalans began to support independence in 2011-2 after Constitutional Court decision overturning much of new autonomy statute.3/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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Cross-national evidence also suggests secessionist electoral support does not rise during recessions (http://t.co/PVC3KgF3JV). 4/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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Finally, Spain's economic recovery has been weak, & if it were the driving factor, PP (incumbent party) would gain, & they haven't. 5/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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My guess is that the rise of Podemos hurt the independence cause by shifting salience of political debate away from independence & by… 6/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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…giving some voters hope for a new constitutional settlement within Spain. So what happens now that the Podemos bubble has popped? 7/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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A lot of "soft independence" voters will start floating back toward the main alternatives, #JuntsPelSi & CUP. 8/
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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So I would predict rising support for #JuntsPelSi & CUP as we approach #27S. More polling & prediction markets would be nice, though. 9/9
— Jason Sorens (@JasonSorens) August 23, 2015
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2 thoughts on “Why Has Catalonia’s Independence Movement Lost Steam?”