I'm not a political behaviorist, but I am familiar with some of the literature and occasionally read some of the election forecasting blogs, like FiveThirtyEight and the U.K.-focused politicalbetting.com. What's interesting about the U.S. forecasting models is that they treat the U.S. as sui generis: they are based on regressions of incumbent (majority) party vote … Continue reading Why Democrats Could Do Worse than Expected in November
Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz has done two studies of how voting ideology affected the electoral fortunes of Republican and Democratic senatorial incumbents over the 2000-2008 period. The study on Republicans is here, and the study on Democrats is here. Over this time period, 57 of 61 Democratic incumbents won their re-election campaigns, while just … Continue reading Does Ideological Radicalism Hurt Republican Incumbents More than Democrats?