The Hagedorn, Manovskii, and Mitman working paper on the effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on employment has been getting a lot of press lately. In brief, they find that the end of the federal unemployment insurance extension accounts for about 1.8 million new jobs in 2014. Mike Konczal does a useful deep dive on the … Continue reading If Revisionist UI Models Are Wrong, So Are Revisionist Minimum Wage Models
Here are quarterly data on "usual weekly earnings" in current dollars from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The first graph shows the first (lowest) decile of wage earners. The second shows the ninth (why not the tenth? BLS does not make that an option). These data should be relevant to the debate over whether most … Continue reading Nominal Wage Growth Over Time
I teach my undergraduates that trade has no long-run effect on aggregate employment. I teach it because it's right, and very few economists would disagree. Tyler Cowen's recent postings on MR about the negative employment effects of trade have the potential to mislead. To the extent that trade and technology correlate with persistent disemployment in … Continue reading Trade and Employment
Political Math's piece on Texas' amazing job growth has been getting a lot of attention around the 'Net. As regular Pileus readers know and as Political Math's piece confirms, job growth is largely a consequence of population growth, and population growth is largely a consequence of warm climate, low cost of living, low taxes, and … Continue reading Texas Job Numbers and Inter-State Migration
My only problem with the chart is its title. I don't think a simple bivariate correlation is enough to establish causality. But it's a suggestive piece of evidence, since both regime uncertainty and the employer mandate associated with the PPACA are plausibly related to slowing job growth.
One of the last all-male enclaves in the military will now be letting in women, according to an announcement by the Navy on Thursday. I have mixed initial reactions to this. Certainly, women make valuable contributions to the military, and I'd like women to have the same opportunities in the work force as men do … Continue reading Life to Change on Submarines