The search for a legacy always begins in earnest as presidents approach the final years of their time in office. Josh Kraushaar (National Journal) has an interesting piece on the Obama legacy. A key passage:
By ignoring the electorate and steering the country in an unmistakably progressive direction his final two years in office, he’s ensuring that his presidency will be more of an eight-year mirage for liberals, rather than one known for winning lasting support for policies that would move the country in a leftward direction.
All presidents have legacies, of course, but they are rarely what they might have imagined when they entered office.
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Thomas B. Edsall has an interesting piece in the New York Times on the “Republican Discovery of the Poor,” the embrace of economic populism, and the promotion of reforms, including changes to the tax code. Edsall understands the potential challenge to Democrats as Republicans “plan to bring the fight to the Democrats on their own turf.”
None of this is good news for Hillary Clinton. As Edsall concludes:
The obligation to counter the Republicans falls on Hillary Clinton. Her supporters are aware that she must navigate between the party’s competing constituencies while simultaneously demonstrating that she is not beholden to the Democratic special interest group network. If the 2016 election becomes a Clinton-Bush contest (or Clinton versus someone else who is committed to reformicon principles), its outcome will be determined by the ability of each candidate to surmount the same hurdle, but from opposite directions. How do you speak for the economically insecure without offending the very secure?
Edsall may not fully appreciate the longstanding disdain for corporate welfare and tax expenditures among libertarian elements of the GOP. What he presents as strategic calculations on the part of some Republicans may be more correctly understood as a longstanding commitment among some factions of the GOP. Whether this will constitute a threat to the Democratic candidate will depend on whether the reformist elements can survive the primaries.
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Despite candidate Obama’s promises of greater openness and transparency, the last few years have not been good ones with respect to freedom of the press. As Al Hunt observes: “The Obama administration has pursued more journalists than other administrations, secretly looking at phone records and credit card transactions and surreptitiously tracking their movements.”
A new Pew survey reveals that the administration’s policies may have a chilling effect:
About two-thirds of investigative journalists surveyed (64%) believe that the U.S. government has probably collected data about their phone calls, emails or online communications, and eight-in-ten believe that being a journalist increases the likelihood that their data will be collected. Those who report on national security, foreign affairs or the federal government are particularly likely to believe the government has already collected data about their electronic communications (71% say this is the case)
Although only 14 percent say that concerns over government surveillance have kept them from pursuing a story, it has forced 49 percent to change the way they store or share documents.
Following the terrorist attack in Paris, President Obama proclaimed: “Free expression and a free press are core values they are universal values, principles that can be attacked but never eradicated.” Let’s hope he is correct.
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Interest in childhood vaccinations has risen in the past few weeks, with the growing number of cases of measles. As Christopher Ingraham (Washington Post) notes: “Public opinion polling shows that vaccination attitudes don’t differ much by party affiliation. Or by income, or even education. But there is one important demographic factor: age.”
Rand Paul has run into some difficulties in the past few days when responding to questions regarding vaccinations. Perhaps his position is more complicated than can be captured in a sound byte. Alternatively, the ambiguity might be a calculated response to the beliefs of a key demographic that Paul has been courting.
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In the State of the Union, President Obama proclaimed the good economic news. He declared 2014 a “breakthrough year for America,” noting “our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.” He also made the case for “middle-class economics,” promising a budget that would focus on “lowering the taxes of working families and putting thousands of dollars back into their pockets each year.”
Things appear far less rosy a week and one-half later. The Commerce Department’s growth figures for the final quarter of 2014 (released Thursday) reveal a slowing economy: 2.6 percent for the fourth quarter, compared with 4.6 percent in the second quarter and 5 percent in the third. That places real GDP growth for 2014 at 2.4 percent. The “breakthrough year” seems to be but a marginal improvement over 2.2 percent (2013) and 2.3 percent (2012). The Commerce Department also released the figures on the seasonally adjusted homeownership rate: 63.9 percent, the lowest level in 20 years.
Perhaps these figures only strengthen the case for “middle class economics”? Unfortunately, the Tax Policy Center’s analysis of the tax provisions in the SOTU reveal that the middle class (the middle quintile) would actually incur a tax increase of $7. Certainly, the provisions would have a significant impact on the top quintile (an average increase of $1,818) with the greatest hit on the top 0.1 percent ($168,006). But the increased revenues would give the greatest relief to the bottom quintile ($174), rather than the middle class. As Max Ehrenfreund (Washington Post, Wonkblog) notes: “There’s no point in calling this tax plan ‘middle-class economics,’ since its main effect is to help the poor. After all, they’re the ones who need it most, and there’s no reason to shy away from policies that benefit them.”
Well, there is a reason for calling this “middle-class economics” just like there is a reason for calling 2014 a “breakthrough year.” Unfortunately, the reason is not grounded in the empirics.
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