A New Measure of Political Risk: The DOG Factor

Governments behaving badly… We’ve all seen it. Get a bunch of libertarians from around the world together, and each seems to take perverse pride in proving that her own government is the worst of all. How can we quantify governments’ badness?

On the economic side, we might look to the Economic Freedom of the World index. The Economist has come up with a clever new one: the DOG factor (“discount for obnoxious governments”). It’s the deviation of the price-to-earnings ratio in the domestic market from global standard valuations. Some governments score very high indeed on the DOG factor:

Iran, like Russia a target of Western sanctions, trades on a p/e of just 5.6 and has a total stockmarket value of $131 billion; were it to be rated on a par with the average emerging market, its market value would be $292 billion, so its DOG factor is $161 billion or 55%.

Argentina’s government has manipulated its inflation rate, defaulted on its debt back in 2001 and, thanks to the legal battle that ensued, may do so again in a few days’ time. Its stockmarket trades on a price-earnings ratio of 6.1. As a result, its total value is $56 billion, rather than the $115 billion it might have commanded (a DOG factor of 51%). After its hyperinflationary episode last decade, Zimbabwe’s rating has recovered a bit, although it still lags the emerging-market average.

Someone oughta run a correlation between DOG factor and economic freedom score. I bet there’d be a strong one.

Bonus question: How could you calculate DOG factor equivalents for American states?

One thought on “A New Measure of Political Risk: The DOG Factor

  1. Not sure quite how their calculations work, but it’s still economic factors, which I–being a Libertarian–find secondary to freedom factors.

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