Defunding Obamacare: In Search of a Strategy

As we all know, if a continuing resolution (or CR) is not passed by the end of the day on September 30, the government will shut down. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has threatened to filibuster the House CR because if debate is suspended, the provisions defunding Obamacare will be eliminated via majority vote. If Senator Cruz is successful–or if he is not, and the House refuses to pass a revised CR–then the government will shut down. But ironically, this will have little impact on Obamacare. As Timothy Carney explains in the Washington Examiner:

But for the most part, no CR will fund Obamacare, even if Obama wrote it himself. You know what funds Obamacare? A bill called HR 3590, also known as the Affordable Care Act.

Obamacare funds Obamacare.

The reason is simple: most of the Affordable Care Act does not depend on annual appropriations. The House CR, in contrast, could defund Obamacare (“Notwithstanding any other provision of the law, no Federal funds shall be made available to carry out any of the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act”). All the House GOP needs to do is convince the Senate majority and President Obama to follow its lead.

So here are the possible outcomes in the next few days:

1. The Senate strips the defunding language from the House CR, the House approves it, the government shutdown is avoided, and Obamacare is left untouched.
2. Senator Cruz succeeds in mounting a filibuster, the debate on the CR is not suspended, the government shuts down temporarily, and Obamacare is left largely untouched.
3. Senator Cruz fails, the Senate strips the defunding language, the House rejects it, the government shuts down temporarily, and Obamacare is left largely untouched.
4. The Senate accepts the House CR and with the President’s approval, Obamacare is defunded.

Does anyone think that the last is a live option? If it is not—and recall: a government shutdown will not have a significant impact Obamacare—what is the larger strategy? Is this simply a means of throwing red meat to the rubes and preventing primary contests from the Right? Or, if you are Senator Cruz, are the goals to maximize face time on the Sunday talk shows, attract donations, and build a mailing list for the 2016 presidential race?

Any insights would be appreciated.