David Brooks – Would You Take His Bet?

Polisphiliac David Brooks:

Here’s a way to make money off of other people’s misery. Short house prices in Northern Virginia. Starting with sequestration and then continuing over the next several years, the Defense Department is going to be hammered. All the big defense contractors in Northern Virginia are going to be hit. It’s already happening. I don’t know if you were thinking of buying a McMansion in McLean or not, but I’d hold off for five years.

Would any of you bet your hard-earned money that the government is going to shrink enough in the DC area to significantly impact Northern Virginia housing prices?  I’m skeptical to say the least.  Betting on the long-term (budgetary) health of the state is usually – unfortunately – a winner.

3 thoughts on “David Brooks – Would You Take His Bet?

  1. I feel really bad for all of those soon to be unemployed defense contractors in Northern Virginia. Hopefully when they have to move and sell their homes, the bureaucrats implementing the Affordable Car Act, or someone helping push public dollars into the next Solyndra, will be there to buy their home.

    Hammering the Pentagon budget is going to do more to hurt military-dependent areas like Hampton Roads down in Virginia. Northern Virginia has benefited from the military contractor boom, but I would be shocked if you argue that Northern Virginia is military-dependent. It will adapt to whatever the latest government boom is.

  2. Brooks, for someone so fascinated with the domain of social science, seems to have forgotten (one of the) cardinal rules of the discipline: phenomenon are multivariate. While some defense contractors will inevitably be hit by the sequester (if and when it does happen), echoing the sagacious prescience of Free Dem, other rent seekers will quickly fill the vacuum.

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