Should we take anything serious that the author of this piece on the ObamaCare court decision writes after its opening two lines? Here they are:
Conventional political wisdom holds that the U.S. Supreme Court, scheduled to hear a challenge to President Barack Obama’s healthcare law beginning on Monday, is likely to strike it down on partisan lines. The court’s Republican appointees enjoy a 5-4 majority.
This is remarkable given that the conventional wisdom for a long-time, held even by ObamaCare’s opponents, is that a court victory for the administration is the most likely result of the legal process set in motion by the passage of the controversial law and its individual mandate.
It makes me wonder if the commentariat – after long-holding that the legal challenge was going nowhere due to its jurisprudential baselessness (see Nancy Pelosi and Linda Greenhouse, for example) – is preparing the intellectual and political information battlespace for a court loss. In particular, are they trying to build the narrative that a decision against ObamaCare would have to be the result of pure politics since serious people across the board agree that the law is constitutional? Naturally, this ignores a lot of smart voices out there who have made the case against the law (including all of the great work done by the “Most Interesting Legal Scholar in the World“).
Of course, the piece’s author is right that there may be 2 (or more) “conservative” votes out there supporting the law’s constitutionality. So we could get a 6-3 or even 7-2 vote. But that would just be repeating what we’ve heard as the conventional wisdom since the process began!
If I could get one wish politically (domestic) for 2012, it would be that this abomination be struck down by the Supreme Court. I’d even prefer this to adding President Obama to the unemployment rolls. I engage in no hyperbole when I say that the logic of the individual mandate is far more dangerous to our future than anything that Obama the Sequel could reasonably do ahead (especially given that Republicans won’t lose the House in 2012 or 2014).