1. For essentially what I said yesterday, just with more words, see this piece on how Romney needs to deal with Paul and his energetic young voters. Major Garrett also notes the wide gulf on foreign policy. 2. Yet another reason Romney could be a disaster for the Republican Party: it could be 1996 all over again as Congressmen … Continue reading More on Yesterday’s NH Primary
Results are still coming in, and Ron Paul is at 24% with 58% reporting, but it's not too early to say that my forecast was wrong. When you examine the town-by-town results, the towns that have reported are exactly average for Ron Paul, according to their 2008 results. So I predict Paul will finish with … Continue reading Ron Paul Soundly Beating Expectations (updated)
I don't think that a guy who refused to run as a 3rd party candidate against John McCain will run against Romney in the generals. And if Romney is smart, he'll find a way to tap into the almost religious devotion of the young Ron Paul voters. But how? Can't imagine the VP slot given how much of lightning rod … Continue reading The Futures of Ron and Rand Paul
I have several relatives in the Granite State, many of whom voted today in the primary. Some kept their vote private, three told me for whom they voted. Two voted for Paul, one for Huntsman. This surprised me a bit since none of my NH family members could be accurately described as libertarians and the Republicans are … Continue reading One Granite Stater’s Take on Paul
Jon Huntsman is having a mini-surge in New Hampshire, at the expense of Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. While a week ago Paul was routinely breaking the 20% barrier in the polls, he is now down to about 17-18%, a small decline, but when replicated across a number of different polls likely to reflect a … Continue reading What to Look for in Tonight’s Primary Results
A piece by Steven Shepard (National Journal) reports the surprising findings of a new CBS News poll. Romney posts a two-point lead over Obama, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. He leads Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, among independent voters. Obama's lead … Continue reading The Polls and Ron Paul’s “Thousand Points of Darkness”
Trying to rationalize why I shouldn't drink myself silly once Romney clinches the nomination (a process that is sadly a good deal of the way there - not the drunkenness but the clinching). So some scenarios and silver linings: 1. Romney wins the nomination and actually beats Obama. Silver lining: No more Obama et al. And more … Continue reading Romney Wins the Nomination – Any Silver Linings?
Jim recently had an op-ed in the Fresno Bee on the TSA that is certainly worth a look here. The killer finish: Thomas Jefferson once said: “Dependence begets subservience and venality, suffocates the germ of virtue, and prepares fit tools for the designs of ambition.” America, however, is a country of independence, not dependence—and citizens, not subjects. We … Continue reading James Otteson on the TSA and Freedom
My colleagues recently posted some predictions for the new year. I didn't participate because I was too busy. OK, I was just lame. Here are a few: The latest job numbers heading into the November election will show unemployment at 7.8%, and Barak Obama will ride that to a very narrow victory over Mitt Romney. … Continue reading More predictions
Replacing a poor teacher with an average one would raise a single classroom’s lifetime earnings by about $266,000, the economists estimate. That is from a NY Times summary of recent research by Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff. Their results following 2.5 million students over 20 years. Benefits of quality teachers also extend to college attendance rates … Continue reading Most provocative sentence of the day
Hit & Run is reporting that Jon Huntsman (audio link) is saying that he would have signed the NDAA, the recent bill authorizing indefinite detention. Couple that with his comments on Iran, and he's looking more and more like just another Bush Republican.
A wry article that captures a good bit of the flavor of an everyday Free Staters' get-together in New Hampshire.
The ACLU has just released a candidate report card on certain civil liberties issues. It includes all Republican candidates, Barack Obama, and Gary Johnson. It doesn't provide an aggregate score, but it scores all candidates on the issue areas of "humane immigration policy," "closing Guantanamo Bay and indefinite detention," "gays and lesbians serving openly in … Continue reading ACLU’s Civil Liberties Candidate Report Card
Last night, Ron Paul increased his percentage of the Iowa caucus vote from 10.0% in 2008 to 21.4%. If we can expect this same kind of increase from Paul in the remaining states, what would we expect his performance to be? I have found that Ron Paul's primary vote shares are best modeled logarithmically, due … Continue reading Forecasting Ron Paul’s Remaining Primary Performances
The results from the Iowa caucus reflect how well established the divisions are on the right. As the NYT described the outcome: Republicans entered the campaign divided into three strains that are now personified by the three men who led in the last polls before the caucuses: Mr. Romney representing the moneyed, establishment chamber of … Continue reading Additional Thoughts on Iowa
1. It really isn't all that surprising - given the makeup of Republican voters in Iowa - that someone like Santorum would finish strongly there. There are a lot of social conservatives in that state who aren't all that concerned about big government as long as their "team" is running the show. Remember, this was a Huckabee state … Continue reading First Thoughts on Iowa
Christopher Preble at the Cato Institute obviously doesn't understand the hell that will break loose in the world if the United States reduces its global military footprint and the spending that sustains it. I mean, doesn't he get that the Russians, Indians, South Koreans, Taiwanese, Japanese, and Vietnamese will all rush to embrace Chinese hegemony or … Continue reading Cutting Defense Spending – All Hell Will Break Loose
At first all I could think is "Wow, did I really see what I thought I saw?" It was suggested to me by a friend who said it was a Paul video - so I also thought for a few seconds it was from the Paul campaign itself rather than the Revolution Super PAC that supports Paul (but the substance and the last frames give … Continue reading Pro-Paul Video on War
See Ed Kilgore's piece, "The Many Accidents That Produced Romney's 'Inevitable' Nomination." I'm pretty sure Fortuna + the Collective Action Problem would be a better stand-in than accident. But Kilgore hits a lot of the right nail heads in explaining why Republicans look stuck with Romney.
In another iteration of his never-ending quest for more government spending, Paul Krugman reminds us today that "Nobody Understands Debt"---at least nobody but him, that is. His discussion of how a family's debt is not a good metaphor for a nation's debt is a good one. And he is right about the larger point that … Continue reading It’s not about the debt!
We thought it might be fun to lay out some predictions for 2012. Hopefully they won't be too embarrassing this time next year (but what is the standard of judgement, the Mendoza Line?). Marc Eisner: 1. As a result of growing instability in the euro-zone and a recession in Europe, the US unemployment rate will … Continue reading Our 2012 Predictions
Bill Simmons has it pretty much right on Drew Brees vs. Dan Marino: Was it right that I didn't get excited about Drew Brees' new passing yards record? It reminds me of Oscar Robertson averaging a triple-double, or any of the Bonds/McGwire home run records; it's impossible to separate the era from the accomplishment itself. When … Continue reading Sunday Morning Quotation – In Honor of All the Holiday Football I Don’t Watch Anymore