In the 2008 Election, Obama beat McCain in Delaware by 25 percentage points. Delaware is a blue state. It is always going to be a blue state. Any Republican who is going to maintain office in Delaware is going to have to be a centrist candidate who appeals to independents and conservative Democrats.
It can be safely said that Christine O’Donnell is not such a candidate. She is surging in the polls and has the endorsement of Tea Partiers. It looks like she might upend moderate Mike Castle in the Republican primary, who at least has a whisper of a hope in winning and maintaining a US Senate seat in Delaware. Even in this anti-Democratic year, O’Donnell has little chance of winning this year, and zero chance of maintaining the seat without an ideological transformation (either by her or the state).
So conservative Republicans in Delaware have to decide whether they want to make a statement or whether they want to have a chance of gaining this seat in one of the few chances they will ever have to do so. Conservatives are giddy about their chances across the country with good cause. But anyone with a drop of sense knows this election isn’t about conservatives taking over the hearts and minds of the country. Our nation is one that voted two years ago for Barak Obama. Republicans in control of the Congress are not going to make the ordinary voter much happier about her government than the Democrats do right now. In short, it ain’t gonna last! 10 years from now the Tea Party will be a distant memory, much as Ross Perot’s Whatever that Was Called Party from the 1990s.
So conservatives (and right-libertarians) are going to have to decide whether to vote with their heads or their hearts, to vote strategically or passionately. Of course I’m well aware the dilemma here. A single voter has no discernible effect on the outcome, so why not vote with your passion? I can’t resolve here the disconnect between group strategy and individual incentives, other than to say that, as a group, conservatives in Delaware are completely nuts if they vote for O’Donnell.
I’m not a paid political hack for Castle, would probably much prefer O’Donnell to Castle if I had the choice, and know little about Delaware. But I can interpret a 25 point advantage. So, my Delaware friends, you live in a blue state. Deal with it and don’t be idiots.
The logic is obvious, but I’m not optimistic.