So the United Kingdom is having an election on May 6 and recently held its first two “party leader debates” in history. British voters, not having been exposed to this kind of political set-piece before, apparently don’t know that the polling effects of these things are supposed to fade rapidly in the days afterward. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg was widely judged to have won the first debate, and his party – perennial also-rans in British elections – are running either first or second in the polls, overtaking the previously favored Conservatives and distancing themselves from Labour by quite a margin.
It’s tough to tell what a Lib Dem “popular vote” victory would mean, in terms of either seat shares or government possibilities. It’s possible that the first-place party will still end up with a small minority of seats, while the third-place party will obtain the plurality.
A good site for following the extraordinarily volatile polls and betting markets in the days leading up to the election is politicalbetting.com.