Last year, the Pileus bloggers made some forecasts about 2012. How did we do? Here are my predictions:
1. “Sudan and South Sudan will go to war. Both countries will also experience internal armed conflicts with at least 25 battle deaths.” Sudan and South Sudan fought a brief war in March and April of 2012. Fortunately, the war was short, and the conflict has been partially resolved. I have not been able to find a source for fatality estimates for the internal conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, but it seems likely that over 25 battle deaths occurred in both countries.
2. “Syria will experience a high-intensity civil war with at least 1000 battle deaths.” Unfortunately, this also came true.
3. “The intersectarian Iraqi coalition government will collapse and eventually give way to a Shi’a-dominated coalition.” Bzzt. Despite tensions, the coalition survived the year.
4. “Massive ECB intervention will continue to keep the Eurozone on life support, but this policy will become increasingly unsustainable as time passes. No country will leave the Eurozone in 2012.” Not a terribly bold prediction, but it held true.
5. “Romney will probably win the Republican nomination; Obama will probably win re-election; Republicans should narrowly win majorities in both houses of Congress; Republicans should win control of all four branches of government in New Hampshire (yes, four: the Executive Council
is really a branch unto itself).” I was right about Romney and Obama, but wrong about the U.S. Senate and three of the four branches of N.H. government.
Call it 3.5 out of 5?
Here are some calls for 2013:
1. Bashar al-Assad will no longer be in power in Syria at the end of 2013. However, the civil war will continue.
2. U.S. troops will not be sent to Mali.
3. The PPACA will suffer another flesh wound when Oklahoma wins its case against the federal exchange subsidies.
4. The sequester will not occur.
5. Scott Brown will win back a seat in the U.S. Senate in a special election.
6. An assault weapons ban will not pass the House.