Here are my prognostications for Tuesday. I agree with Alex Tabarrok that a prognostication isn’t worth much if the issuer isn’t willing to put something behind it. Therefore, I’m willing to take bets on any of these.
Probability of Obama victory: 4 to 1. Somewhere between Intrade and Nate Silver. In fact I tried to make a bet on Intrade in favor of Obama several days ago, but they wanted all sorts of private information on my identity that I wasn’t willing to give them. I will take either side of this bet at those odds.
Popular vote share: Obama 50.0, Romney 48.3, Johnson 0.7. I’m willing to take either side of these at even odds.
Electoral vote: Obama 294, Romney 244. Again, I will take either side of this bet at even odds.
Senate: 53 D (incl 2 I), 47 R. Same deal – either side, even odds.
House: Republican majority. I’ll give 13 to 1 odds against a Dem takeover.
New Hampshire Predictions
Governor: Hassan (D). I’ll take even odds against.
Executive Council majority: R. Same.
Senate majority: R. Same.
House majority: R. Same.
If you’d like to make a bet, please post in the comments and then e-mail me your contact information. My e-mail address is jsorensATbuffalo.edu (replace the “AT” with the “at” symbol). Please limit my total exposure on any one bet to $100 maximum (I’m not wealthy).
I’m in Jason. I’ll take the other side of the Electoral College prediction. Romney a winner with about 301 votes, +/- 5. I think we will see more of a 2004 turnout than an 06, 08, or 10 turnout, which I think bodes poorly for the president. The Romney forces seem more energized and to have regained momentum they lost with the Sandy interlude of a few days. My wager: a beer the next time we are together.
You’re on, Roger.
On your national vote share, is it possible to bet on just one term (Johnson’s total vote percentage)?
Indeed it is! What’s your bet?
I don’t think Gary Jonson is going to reach .7%
Can I wager a lunch? (Regardless of the outcome, you could choose the restaurant.)
I know I don’t actually know you, but I’m a fan and I’m interested in constitutional design/constitutional political economy and positive political theory and I’d love the chance to pick your brain.
(My background is in normative theory and history of thought.)
Sure, that’d be fine… But do we actually live near each other?
Pairwise and/or voting preference?