Here are my prognostications for Tuesday. I agree with Alex Tabarrok that a prognostication isn’t worth much if the issuer isn’t willing to put something behind it. Therefore, I’m willing to take bets on any of these.
Probability of Obama victory: 4 to 1. Somewhere between Intrade and Nate Silver. In fact I tried to make a bet on Intrade in favor of Obama several days ago, but they wanted all sorts of private information on my identity that I wasn’t willing to give them. I will take either side of this bet at those odds.
Popular vote share: Obama 50.0, Romney 48.3, Johnson 0.7. I’m willing to take either side of these at even odds.
Electoral vote: Obama 294, Romney 244. Again, I will take either side of this bet at even odds.
Senate: 53 D (incl 2 I), 47 R. Same deal – either side, even odds.
House: Republican majority. I’ll give 13 to 1 odds against a Dem takeover.
New Hampshire Predictions
Governor: Hassan (D). I’ll take even odds against.
Executive Council majority: R. Same.
Senate majority: R. Same.
House majority: R. Same.
If you’d like to make a bet, please post in the comments and then e-mail me your contact information. My e-mail address is jsorensATbuffalo.edu (replace the “AT” with the “at” symbol). Please limit my total exposure on any one bet to $100 maximum (I’m not wealthy).