Sean Trende has an interesting take on the pull of “gravity” in the Presidential race. Take home: Unless some kind of shock happens (like the 47% speech), gravity has been pulling Obama down such that the election is going to be extremely close and could even favor Romney slightly. This would seem to be consistent with certain political science models such as this one that focus on macro variables rather than horse race events (though some of the macro models favor the President too). His graphic on the first page suggests, though, that some kind of shock being introduced is a fairly regular event – and thus the timing of the next shock and the extent of its effect is going to be critical.
And then there is this which seems to be the only thing that matters – and which favors Obama quite a bit as things now stand:
I wish everyone would read and understand this.
The news media–and the right-wing talk shows–frequently point to national polls. But, as everyone who understands the Electoral College knows, we do not have a single, national election but 50 statewide elections.
Perhaps it shouldn’t, but it frightens me that people who do not understand this are permitted to vote.
Exactly. It is amateurish to talk about national polls alone – though it generally follows that wide splits in the national vote translate into electoral success. But you hit the nail on the head — we are talking about 50 statewide elections and only a handful of those are really key at this point (since most of the others are done deals). You’d think people would understand this after 2000 – but short memories I guess.
What frightens me, or maybe disgusts is the better word, is that in each of these fifty statewide elections, it’s the metropolitan areas that control the outcome.
Life in democracy: size matters.