This looks bad for Romney if the polls are on-target:
It means that Romney can only stand to lose New Hampshire on this list of toss-up states:
| Colorado (9) |
| Florida (29) |
| Iowa (6) |
| Nevada (6) |
| New Hampshire (4) |
| North Carolina (15) |
| Virginia (13) |
RCP: Obama with 265 Electoral Votes
September 26, 2012 by Grover Cleveland
11 Responses
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If Romney could run that table (minus NH), we would at least be spared the typical comments about the vital importance of Ohio in every Presidential election. I’ve heard this dozens of times, and I don’t spend a lot of time watching political commentary on the news.
Bonus points to the readers who know who would win the election (and why) if Romney runs the table minus NH.
with all due respect…. who the hell really cares? Socialist for Fascist, take your choice, why do you waste your time with such mind numbing nonsense. Seldom do I dislike what you write. This is one of those times…. much ado about nothing.
I’m a political scientist so these types of things are interesting in a non-normative sense. However, in this case, I also grudgingly think that a Romney presidency would be less problematic from the standpoint of liberty than another Obama term. As we saw in the ObamaCare SCOTUS case, who picks the justices does actually matter. One more consiervative on that Court and Roberts goes the other way to write the majority opinion or is in the minority (and few people care about his convoluted “logic”). Of the major and minor candidates, I’d prefer Johnson to Romney, and Romney to Obama. Sound about right? And no, I don’t think the Republic will be saved by a Romney victory alone. Indeed, there will be new threats from such an administration.
If there’s an electoral tie (unlikely) and Romney wins in the House (likely), how much more damaging to the democratic process would the outcome be relative to the Supreme Court deciding the outcome in 2000?
I suppose if one puts a lot of emphasis on democracy versus procedural justice/rule of law/, it will hurt. But we survived in 2000 and would again – assuming that Obama didn’t do something crazy like refuse to be unseated (which I can’t imagine he would do) by appealing to a popular vote win and against decision by “politics.”
Procedural point aside, you don’t think there will be an outcry if Obama wins the popular vote, but has the presidency taken away from him by House Republicans, elected by a GOP gerrymander?
Consider if the Democrats somehow take back the House, they’ll still be unable to control enough delegations to seat Obama as President. How’s that for outrage?
Kiss my ass republicans. You know what? Kiss Obama’s ass. Look at the fricking scoreboard homos, Obama only needs 5. Romney needs 79. You are just jealos that a black democrat, whos been thru so much, and that cares about people, beat that goofy looking Fuck up Twit Romney. The Republican party can move to china. Thats where you send our jobs after all. LOL. Republicans are Democrats bitches, and always will be. So go suck Mitt’s hairy chode if you like him that much. Go on, blow his cock during his losing speech
Move to China? That’s so crazy, it just might work.
I agree with Skip. As an aside, Democrat should be more civil and learn how to spell and construct a sentence. But,considering he probably went to the public schools and was taught by a Union teacher,I can see why he speaks and writes the way he does. Of course Obama(and probably Romney too)support Public Education and their attempts at dumbing down the average American. I guess,with Democrat, those teachers succeeded.
“If the polls are correct.” I’ve read alot of the criticism of poll weighting and stacking with Democrats, however, the real story is the low valid response rate as documented by the Pew Research Center: http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/
This is an important story that is being ignored. The News Hour did an entire segment on polling, mentioning the earlier criticisms of polls showing Obama ahead, but ignoring the Pew results even though they frequently have the rediculous Andy Kohut on to explain them.
Moreover, people (including me) lie to pollsters, particularly when the polls are computer generated and you push buttons to identify your age, ethnic background, sex, and answers.